流行病学资料及基线血清学指标对新型冠状病毒肺炎患者肺部CT影像转归的预测作用

Predictive effect of epidemiological data and baseline serological indicators on pulmonary CT imaging outcome of patients with corona virus disease 2019

目的探讨流行病学资料及基线血清学指标对新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)患者肺部CT影像转归的预测价值。方法回顾性分析16例COVID-19确诊患者的临床资料。采用受试者工作特征曲线评价流行病学资料、基线血清学指标对患者肺部CT影像转归的预测价值。结果16例患者中,肺部CT影像进行性好转共4例,先进展再好转共12例。基线淋巴细胞百分比、单核细胞百分比、CD4+T细胞计数、CD8+T细胞计数、肌酸肌酶同工酶以及5个联合指标预测COVID-19患者肺部CT影像进行性好转的曲线下面积分别为0.792、0.771、0.792、0.917、0.813、0.979(均P<0.05)。结论基线淋巴细胞百分比、单核细胞百分比、CD4+T细胞计数、CD8+T细胞计数、肌酸肌酶同工酶对COVID-19患者的肺部影像转归方式具有潜在预测作用,其他流行病学资料及血清学指标的预测价值仍需进一步深入研究。

Objective To explore the predictive value of epidemiological data and baseline serological indicators for the outcome of pulmonary CT imaging in corona virus disease 2019(COVID-19)patients.Methods The clinical data of 16 patients definitely diagnosed as COVID-19 were analyzed retrospectively.Receiver operating characteristic curve was employed to evaluate the predictive value of epidemiological data and baseline serological indicators for the outcome of patients′pulmonary CT imaging.Results Among the 16 patients,four cases presented progressive improvements and 12 cases presented aggravation first and then improvement on pulmonary CT imaging.For predicting progressive improvements on pulmonary CT imaging in COVID-19 patients,the areas under the curve of baseline lymphocyte percentage,monocyte percentage,CD4+T lymphocyte count,CD8+T lymphocyte count,creatine kinase isozyme MB and the combination of these five indicators were 0.792,0.771,0.792,0.917,0.813 and 0.979,respectively(all P<0.05).Conclusion Baseline lymphocyte percentage,monocyte percentage,CD4+T lymphocyte count,CD8+T lymphocyte count,and creatine kinase isozyme MB can potentially predict the outcome of pulmonary imaging in COVID-19 patients,and the predictive value of the other epidemiological data and serological indicators still needs further in-depth study.