乏燃料多式联运动态风险评估研究

Research on dynamic risk chain risk assessment of spent fuel multimodal transport

考虑到乏燃料具有辐射性,在其进行多式联运过程中风险的评估至关重要,而风险的不确定性主要体现在系统性和动态变化性。在研究中提出一种将风险评估转变成运输延迟的概率的动态演变方法。通过故障树分析运输途中会发生乏燃料泄漏从而导致延迟的主要风险,并结合故障树通过改进的熵权层次分析确定各风险的权重,最终利用乏燃料特性来评估风险。对于运输期间发生的风险,在离散的点中动态地评估风险情形概率,更加准确地评估运输中的风险。

Considering the radioactive nature of spent fuel,risk assessment in the multi-model transport process is crucial,while the uncertainty of risk is mainly reflected in the systematic and dynamic variability.In this study,we propose a dynamic evolution method to transform risk assessment into the probability of transport delay.In combination with fault tree,the weight of each risk is determined by the improved hierarchy analysis.Besides,we use spent fuel characteristics to assess risk.For the risks occurring during transportation,we dynamically evaluate the probability of risk situation in discrete points,and evaluate the transportation risks accurately.