消费升级、空间溢出与产业全要素生产率

Consumption Upgrading,Space Spillover and Industrial Total Factor Productivity

为考察消费升级影响产业全要素生产率的程度及空间相关特征,本文基于中国1997-2017年间省级面板数据,利用半参数OP法测度了产业全要素生产率,引入空间权重矩阵,建立空间杜宾模型,测算了消费升级影响的直接效应和间接效应。结果表明,消费升级与产业全要素生产率具有明显的空间相关效应,并且地区间消费升级会促进产业全要素生产率的提升。消费升级具有显著的正向空间溢出效应,对服务业效率的促进作用总效应大于对工业的影响。进一步探究空间效应的差异发现,就时间变化而言,消费升级对工业效率的促进作用是显著增强,对服务业的影响随服务业发展而逐渐减弱;就地理位置而言,中西部地区对产业效率提升的直接效应大于东部地区,而对服务业的间接效应却呈现出由东向西逐渐递减的趋势。在更换空间权重矩阵后,以上结论依然稳健。

In order to study the consumption upgrade affects the industry’s total factor productivity and the spatially related characteristics,the semi-parametric OP method is used to measure the industry’s total factor productivity based on the provincial panel data of China from 1997 to 2017.A spatial Dubin model using spatial weight matrix is also established to measure the direct and indirect effects of the impact of consumption upgrade.The results show that there is a significant spatial correlation effect between consumption upgrade and industrial total factor productivity,and interregional consumption upgrade will promote the increase of industrial total factor productivity.Consumption upgrade has a significant positive space spillover effect,and the overall effect of promoting the efficiency of the service industry is greater than the effect on industry.Further exploring the differences in spatial effects,it is found that in terms of time changes,the promotion of consumption upgrade on industrial efficiency is significantly enhanced,and the impact on the service industry gradually weakens with the development of the service industry.In terms of geographical location,the central and western regions’direct effect of efficiency improvement is greater than that of the eastern region,while the indirect effect on the service industry is gradually decreasing from east to west.After replacing the spatial weight matrix,the above conclusions are still robust.