中国水果消费影响因素分析

Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Fruit Consumption in China

针对我国水果消费量逐年增加的状况,分析了我国现阶段的水果消费特征,总结了影响我国水果消费的主要因素,包括:城镇化水平、水果产量、水果出口数量和地区差异等。为进一步分析各影响因素的影响大小及方向,建立了多元线性回归模型,并采用逐步回归的方法对模型的多重共线性进行了修正。结果表明:城镇化水平、地区差异、水果产量和水果出口量对我国的水果消费均具有显著性影响,且影响程度从大到小依次排列。结合我国经济和社会发展趋势可知,未来几年我国的水果消费量还会继续增加,且上升空间较大,据此从发展经济、建立优质水果产业带、加快现代化物流建设、扩大水果进出口贸易等方面提出了相关建议。

According to the situation that the consumption of fruit in China is increasing year by year,the characteristics of fruit consumption at the present stage in China were analyzed,and the main factors affecting the fruit consumption were summarized,including the urbanization level,fruit output,fruit export volume and regional differences.In order to further analyze the extent and direction of the influence of each influencing factor,the multiple linear regression model was established,and the multicollinearity of the model was modified by using the method of stepwise regression.The results showed that:the level of urbanization,regional differences,fruit output,and fruit export volume all had significant impact on the fruit consumption in China,and the degree of influence was in order from large to small.Combined with the development trend of the economy and society in China,the consumption of fruit in China would continue to increase in the next few years,and there was a large space for increase.Accordingly,some countermeasures were put forward from the aspects of developing the economy,establishing the industrial belt of high-quality fruit,accelerating the construction of modern logistics and expanding the import and export trade of fruit.