摘要
研究采用相对变化率、集中度和集中期分析降雨的年内分布规律,然后采用线性趋势和Mann-Kendall等研究降雨的年际变化规律,最后采用Pearson相关分析和灰色相关分析方法探讨降雨与台风的相关性特征。结果显示,各月降雨相对变化率达到30%以上,降雨趋于集中化,主要集中在7月份;月平均降雨量相对稳定,春、夏季降雨减少,而秋、冬季降雨呈增加趋势;降雨的突变发生在20世纪80~90年代。在台风各影响因子中,台风降雨是影响夏秋降雨的主要因素,而台风发生次数对降雨量影响最小。
The relative variability,concentration and concentration period are firstly used to analyze the distribution of rainfall within the year,then the linear trend and Mann-Kendall are used to study the inter-annual variation of rainfall,and finally the Pearson correlation analysis and gray correlation analysis method are used to discuss the correlation characteristics between rainfall and typhoons.The results show that,(a)the relative variability of monthly rainfall is relatively larger with a magnitude of more than 30%,and the rainfall tends to be concentrated and is mainly concentrated in July;(b)the monthly average rainfall is relatively stable,and the seasonal rainfall decreases in spring and summer,while increases in autumn and winter,and(c)the abrupt change occurred during 1980s-1990s.The typhoon-caused rain is the main factor affecting the summer and autumn rainfall while the number of typhoons has the least influence.
作者
阮俞理
莫崇勋
孙桂凯
RUAN Yuli;MO Chongxun;SUN Guikai(College of Architecture and Civil Engineering,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,Guangxi,China;Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Structural Safety of Ministry of Education,Nanning 530004,Guangxi,China;Guangxi Key Laboratories of Disaster Prevention and Engineering Safety,Nanning 530004,Guangxi,China)
出处
《水力发电》
2021年第1期27-33,共7页
Water Power
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51969004)
广西自然科学基金资助项目(2017GXNSFAA198361)
广西研究生教育创新计划资助项目(YCBZ2019022)。
