新疆伊宁市1952年〜2015年气温及降水量变化特征分析

Analysis on the Characteristics of Temperature and Precipitation Changes in Yining,Xinjiang from 1952 to 2015

选用新疆伊宁气象站1952年~2015年以来的月年气温及降水量序列资料,采用五年滑动平均法、线性回归分析、累积距平法以及M-K突变检验等数理统计方法对研究区近64 a来水文气象要素变化特征进行了综合分析研究。结果表明,新疆伊宁市在近64 a以来,其年均气温及各季气温在波动中整体明显呈上升趋势,其多年降水量也呈明显上升趋势,说明该地区气候的湿润化程度比较明显,研究区降水量的季节性差异较大,除了春季表现出较小的减少趋势以外,其他各季降水量均呈增加趋势;气温在1995年前后发生突变,突变后年均气温呈显著的上升趋势。年降水量在1998年前后发生突变,其呈现为由减少到增多的变化趋势;自1999年开始呈持续增长趋势,预计未来几年内新疆伊宁市降水量将呈显著增加趋势。

Selecting monthly and annual temperature and precipitation data from Xinjiang Yining Meteorological Station from 1952 to 2015,using five-year moving average method,linear regression analysis,cumulative anomaly method and M-K mutation test and other mathematical statistical methods,the results show that the study area is nearly 64 years old.Yining city,Xinjiang in recent 64 a,the annual average temperature and seasonal temperatures in overall clearly on the rise in waves,the precipitation has obvious rising trend for many years,explain the region climate humidification degree is more noticeable,precipitation seasonal differences in the study area,in addition to reducing trend of spring show smaller,other seasonal precipitation in all showed a trend of increase;The average annual temperature showed a significant upward trend after the abrupt change of temperature around 1995.The annual precipitation changed from decreasing to increasing around 1998.Since 1999,the precipitation in Yining city of Xinjiang will increase significantly in the next few years.