2001~2019年中国地质灾害分布规律及引发因素分析

DISTRIBUTION RULE AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF GEOLOGICAL DISASTERS FROM 2001 TO 2019 IN CHINA

文章通过2001~2019年全国地质灾害灾情资料,对近19 a的地质灾害时空分布和变化趋势进行分析研究。分析结果表明:(1)时间上,地质灾害主要发生在汛期(5~9月)。2010年以来地质灾害的发生数量、死亡失踪人数、直接经济损失呈下降趋势。(2)空间上,中南地区发生地质灾害数量最多,西南地区的因灾死亡人数和直接经济损失最大。湖南省发生地质灾害数量最多,超过13万起;四川省和甘肃省受灾最严重,死亡人数超过2500人,直接经济损失超过90亿元。(3)滑坡和崩塌是主要的地质灾害类型,占总数的90%左右。重大地质灾害占总数的1.3%,却造成死亡失踪人员总数的41.8%和直接经济损失总数的55.9%。(4)降雨是引发地质灾害主要的自然因素,人为因素引发的地质灾害则呈缓慢上升趋势。(5)成功预报地质灾害次数与地质灾害总数之比从2001年的3.99%提高到2019年的15.34%,避免直接经济损失与直接经济损失之比,从2001年的2.46%提高到2019年的29.96%。

Based on the national geological disasters data of 2001~2019,this paper analyzes the temporal and spatial distribution and changing trend of geological disasters in recent 19 years.The results show that:(1)Geological disasters mainly occur in flood season(May-September).Since 2010,the number of geological disasters,deaths and disappearances,as well as direct economic losses have shown a decrease trend.(2)The number of geological disasters occurred in the central and southern regions is the largest,and the number of disaster deaths and direct economic losses in the southwest region are the largest.Hunan Province has the largest number of geological disasters,more than 130000;Sichuan Province and Gansu Province have suffered the most serious death toll of more than 2500 people,direct economic losses of more than 9 billion yuan.(3)Landslides and collapses are the main types of geological disasters,accounting for about 90%of the total.Major geological disasters accounted for 1.3 per cent of the total,resulting in 41.8 per cent of all deaths and missing persons and 55.9 per cent of all direct economic losses.(4)Rainfall is the main natural factor causing geological disasters,and the geological disasters caused by human factors are increasing slowly.(5)The ratio of the number of successful prediction geological disasters to the total number of geological disasters increased from 3.99%in 2001 to 15.34%in 2019,avoiding the ratio of direct economic losses to direct economic losses,from 2.46%in 2001 to 29.96%in 2019.