The Consumption-Driven Effect of Place-based Industrial Policy:An Empirical Study Based on Development Zone Policy

区位导向性产业政策的消费带动效应——以开发区政策为例的实证研究

Can the development zone policy that pioneered Chinese industrialization energize the consumption of urban residents and become an important means of achieving the coordinated development of industrialization and urbanization?We used the policy impact of upgrading provincial development zones to conduct empirical research on the consumptiondriven effect of development zone policy with the Difference in Difference(DID)model.Our findings show that the upgrading of development zones is significant in raising urban residents’total consumption,personal consumption,housing consumption and expenditure on children’s education.This is mainly due to the increase in productivity brought about by the upgrading policy.However,in cities that have more stringent household registration(hukou)systems,impose tougher home purchase restrictions(HPR)on the floating population and have less social harmony,the labor force is less willing and less able to consume,making it hard to expand domestic demand.

作为中国工业化发展的排头兵,开发区政策能否带动城市居民消费活力的提升,成为实现工业化和城镇化协同发展的重要机制?利用省级开发区升级的政策冲击,使用双重差分模型对开发区政策的消费带动效应进行实证研究发现,开发区升级对于城市居民总消费、生活性消费、住房消费和子女受教育支出都具有显著的促进作用。这主要得益于开发区升级带来的生产力水平的提升;但在户籍制度更严格、流动人口购房限制更大以及社会和谐度偏低的城市,劳动力在城市里消费的意愿和能力相对较弱,内需难以扩大。