湖北省农业碳排放的时序特征与影响因素分析

Analysis of the timing characteristics and influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions in Hubei province

以化肥、农药、农用薄膜、农用柴油、农业播种面积、农业灌溉面积等6类碳源测算湖北省1993-2017年的农业碳排放,利用Mann-Kendall非参数和滑动T检验进行了时序特征的分析,并进行LMDI加和分解,以研究湖北省农业碳排放的影响因素。结果表明,湖北省农业碳排放量在1993-2017年总体上呈先上升后下降的趋势,在2012年达到顶点,但具有显著的上升趋势,农业碳排放增量则具有显著的下降趋势,单位GDP碳排放量及增量具有显著下降趋势,单位耕地碳排放量具有显著上升趋势,单位耕地碳排放量增量具有显著下降趋势;从影响因素的分解结果来看,农业生产效率、产业结构、农村人口和农业产业结构是湖北省农业碳减排的主要影响因素,其贡献依次减小,而经济发展水平和城镇化则是导致湖北省农业碳排放量增加的主要影响因素。

Agricultural carbon emissions in Hubei province from 1993 to 2017 using 6 types of carbon sources was calculated,includ⁃ing fertilizers,pesticides,agricultural films,agricultural diesel,agricultural planting area,and agricultural irrigation area.By analys⁃ing of time-series characteristics and LMDI addition and decomposition,the influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions were studied in Hubei province.The results showed that Hubei’s agricultural carbon emissions generally increased first and then declined between 1993 and 2017,reaching its peak in 2012,but with a significant upward trend,and agricultural carbon emissions increased with a significant downward trend.The carbon emissions and increments per unit of GDP had a significant downward trend,the carbon emissions per unit of arable land had a significant upward trend,and the carbon emissions per unit of arable land had a significant downward trend;From the decomposition results of the influencing factors,agricultural production efficiency,industrial structure,ru⁃ral population and agricultural industrial structure were the main influencing factors of agricultural carbon emission reduction in Hubei province,and their contributions decrease in turn,while the level of economic development and urbanization were the main influenc⁃ing factors leading to the increase of agricultural carbon emission in Hubei province.