机遇预期还是损失规避:经济政策不确定性对企业并购的影响

Opportunities Seeking or Loss Aversion:The Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Corporate M&A

以2011—2017年中国A股上市公司并购数据为依据,基于实物期权理论等揭示经济政策不确定性对企业并购的影响及作用机制,并由行为金融学视角出发,考察管理者过度自信对两者关系的调节作用。研究结果表明经济政策不确定性对企业的并购规模与并购绩效具有促进作用;管理者过度自信减弱了经济政策不确定性对并购绩效的促进作用;经济政策不确定性对企业并购的影响会因企业所有权性质不同而存在差异;进一步分析其影响机制,发现经济政策不确定性提高了企业的并购整合能力,从而促进了并购绩效的提升,即并购整合在经济政策不确定性与并购绩效的关系中起到了部分中介作用。

This article based on real option theory reveals the impact and mechanism of economic policy uncertainty on corporate mergers and acquisitions by using data from 2011-2017 Chinese A-share listed company mergers and acquisitions.And from the perspective of behavioral finance,this paper examines the role of managers’overconfidence in regulating the relationship between the two.The results of the study show that economic policy uncertainty has a positive effect on the scale of M&A and M&A performance.Overconfidence of managers has weakened the inhibitory effect of economic policy uncertainty on M&A performance.And uncertainty in economic policy has different effects on mergers and acquisitions of enterprises with different ownership.In addition,by further analyzing the impact of economic policy uncertainty on M&A performance,it is found that economic policy uncertainty improves the M&A integration capabilities.And then it could promote the improvement of M&A performance.So the M&A integration played a part of the intermediary role relationship between the economic policy uncertainty and M&A performance.