基于生存分析的国家科技创新政策稳定性研究

Research on the stability of national science and technology innovation policy based on survival analysis

采用生存分析方法,对中国2006年-2019年中央级别的科技创新政策生存时间进行量化处理,基于现有文献研究构建“政策工具—政策目标”的二维政策分析框架,并结合生存函数图表探究各个维度及其二级视角下科技创新政策稳定性的相关情况.研究发现,中国科技创新政策在混合型政策工具层面的生存情况较好、强制性政策工具稳定性较差、自愿性政策工具则居中;政策目标层面,任务导向型目标稳定性较扩散导向型目标而言更优,技术开发与科技成果转化政策稳定性尚待提高.该研究对政策量化分析、提高政策实施效率、加快创新型国家建设具有一定实践启示意义.

In this paper,a survival analysis method is utilized to quantify the survival time of China's science and technology innovation policy from 2006 to 2019.An analysis framework of“policy tools-policy goals”is constructed,with the relevant factors affecting the stability of science and technology innovation policy explored.The study found that China’s science and technology innovation policy has better survival at the level of hybrid policy tools,less stability of mandatory policy tools,and centering of voluntary policy tools;task-oriented policy targets have better stability than diffusion-oriented policy targets.The intensity of technology introduction and the efficiency of the transformation of scientific and technological achievements still need to be improved.At this stage,national science and technology innovation activities are still led by the government,and the participation of enterprises,scientific research institutes,universities and other subjects is insufficient.The study found some practical implications for improving the efficiency of policy implementation and accelerating the construction of an innovative country.