吉林省“镰刀弯”地区大豆恢复性增长时空格局及影响因素分析

Spatio-temporal Pattern of Soybean Recovery Growth and Its Influencing Factors in Sickle Bend Area of Jilin Province

以大豆振兴为导向的种植结构调整能够为国家粮食安全和重要农产品有效供给提供保障。吉林省"镰刀弯"地区是农业部实施大豆振兴计划的重点地区,2018年大豆播种面积约为20万hm2,占吉林省大豆播种总面积的70%~80%,迎来了新一轮的大豆种植规模扩张周期。在吉林省"镰刀弯"地区大豆恢复性增长过程中,西部地区成为重要新增区域,新增面积占"镰刀弯"地区大豆播种总面积的28.55%、占新增总面积的92.7%;东部地区保持了传统大豆优势种植区的地位,大豆生产规模指数和生产集中度指数分别达到60.33%和58.58%。以新一轮大豆播种面积变化值为因变量,选取13项指标为自变量进行回归分析的结果表明,区域网络基础设施建设、经济金融发展水平、农业现代化水平及社会消费能力对大豆恢复性增长具有积极的推动作用。

The adjustment of planting structure guided by soybean revitalization can provide guarantee for national food security and effective supply of important agricultural products.The sickle bend area of Jilin province is the key area of the soybean revitalization plan implemented by the Ministry of Agriculture.In 2018,the soybean planting area was about 200000 hectares,accounting for 70%~80%of the total soybean planting area in Jilin province,and it has come into a new expansion cycle of soybean planting scale.In the process of soybean recovery growth in sickle bend area of Jilin province,the western region has become an important new growth area,the newly increased area accounts for 28.55%of the total soybean planting area and 92.7%of the total newly increased area of sickle bend area.The eastern region has maintained the dominant position of traditional soybean planting area,and its soybean production scale index and production concentration index have reached 60.33%and 58.58%respectively.Taking the change value of soybean planted area as the dependent variable and 13 indicators as the independent variable for regression analysis,the results showed that the regional network infrastructure construction,economic and financial development level,agricultural modernization level and social consumption capacity had a positive role in promoting the recovery growth of soybean.