中国对“一带一路”沿线国家柑橘出口潜力分析

Analysis of China’s Citrus Export Potential to the Countries along the Belt and Road

基于"一带一路"倡议背景,采用2002—2018年中国柑橘出口贸易数据,对中国与"一带一路"沿线国家柑橘出口贸易现状及特征进行分析,并利用引力模型对中国与沿线国家柑橘出口贸易的影响因素及其潜力进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,进口国的人均国内生产总值(GDP)、人口规模、"渝新欧"铁路开通会促进双边贸易流量增长;两国间的地理距离会对双边贸易产生负向影响;西亚地区的柑橘消费量对中国柑橘出口有负向影响,与预期不符合;中国与"一带一路"沿线大部分国家的柑橘出口贸易存在巨大潜力。最后,基于实证分析的结论,在参考"一带一路"倡议建设内涵的基础上,提出了促进中国柑橘出口的政策建议,即中国应在继续推进"互联互通"建设的前提下,稳定现有市场,利用"渝新欧"贸易大道便利优势出口柑橘,积极开拓西亚、东欧及西欧的市场。

Based on the background of the Belt and Road Initiative,using the data of China’s citrus export trade from 2002 to 2018,the status quo and characteristics of citrus export trade between China and the countries along the Belt and Road were analyzed,and the influencing factors and the citrus export trade between China and the countries along the Belt and Road were empirically analyzed by using the gravity model.The research results showed that the per capita Gross Domestic Product(GDP)of importers,population size,and the opening of the Chongqing-Xinjiang-Europe international railway would promote the growth of bilateral trade flows,and the geographical distance between the two countries would negatively affect bilateral trade,the citrus consumption in West Asia had a negative impact on China’s citrus exports and was not in line with expectations,and there was great potential for citrus export trade between China and most countries along the Belt and Road.Finally,based on the empirical analysis conclusions and referring to the connotation of the Belt and Road Initiative,corresponding policy recommendations to promote the development of China’s citrus exports were put forward from stabilizing the existing market with the premise of continuing to promote the construction of interconnection and interoperability,and actively develop markets in West Asia,Eastern Europe and Western Europe using the trade advantages of Chongqing-Xinjiang-Europe international railway to export citrus.