近20年来我国普通高等教育规模演进特点及其弹性系数的考量

The Characteristics of the Scale Development of China's General Higher Education and the Consideration of Its Elastic Coefficient over the Past Twenty Years

回溯近20年来我国普通高等教育规模发展历程,普通高等教育事业发生了翻天覆地的变化。从整体而言,普通高等教育规模发展方式以2008年为分界点,呈现出明显的外延式跨越发展转向内涵式稳定发展的阶段性特征。从普通高等教育各层次规模发展看,2006年是分界点,之前普通高等教育规模增长的重心是专科层次,之后本科和研究生层次逐渐成为规模增长的重心。从高等教育弹性系数看,2006年是分界点,整个普通高等教育弹性系数及各层次教育弹性系数均大于1,普通高等教育规模发展速度高于经济增长速度,之后则相反;比较而言,专科教育与经济发展的相关性和敏感性要强于本科和研究生教育。在高等教育普及化过渡阶段,可适度提高专科和研究生层次规模增长比例。

Looking back on the development of the scale of general higher education in China, great changes have taken place over the past twenty years. On the whole, the scale development mode of China’s general higher education takes 2008 as the demarcation point and shows obvious stage characteristics, shifting from the extensive leap development to the intensive stable development. From the perspective of the development scale of all levels of general higher education, 2006 is the demarcation point. Before 2006, the core of scale growth of general higher education was junior college level education and after that, undergraduate and graduate level education gradually became the core of scale growth. From the perspective of the elasticity coefficient of general higher education, 2006 is the demarcation point. The elasticity coefficient of the whole general higher education and the elasticity coefficient of general higher education at all levels are greater than 1. The development speed of general higher education scale is higher than that of economic growth, but the years after that are the opposite. Relatively, the correlation and sensitivity between junior college education and economic development are stronger than that of undergraduate and postgraduate education. In the transition stage of popularization of general higher education, we can properly increase the proportion of growth in the scale of junior college and postgraduate level education.