基于改进的信号灯预警模型的城市智慧供应链发展动态预测研究

Research on Dynamic Prediction of Urban Smart Supply Development in China Based on Improved Signal Light Warning Model

在国家大力推动供应链创新与应用的背景下,许多城市纷纷开展供应链创新试点,城市智慧供应链已经成为检验城市发展水平的重要因素。开展城市智慧供应链发展水平动态预测有助于帮助城市认识其智慧供应链的发展水平,识别薄弱环节,促进城市智慧供应链的可持续发展。为此,本文基于改进的信号灯模型构建了中国城市智慧供应链的预警框架。(1)从智慧基础设施建设情况、人力资源投入情况、资金投入情况、企业创新4个维度构建了城市智慧供应链发展的评价指标体系;(2)基于信号灯模型识别了4个评价维度下二级指标的信号灯状态;(3)利用层次分析法改进了信号灯模型的权重设置环节。本文判别了不同二级指标的重要程度,计算得到综合警情指数,并给出预警信息,为政府部门提供智慧供应链的发展建议。

In the context of the country's vigorous promotion of supply chain innovation and application,many cities have launched supply chain innovation pilots,and urban smart supply chain has become an important factor in testing the urban develop⁃ment level.By carrying out dynamic prediction of the development level of the urban smart supply chain,we will understand the de⁃velopment level,identify weak links,and promote the sustainable development of the urban smart supply chain.Therefore,based on the improved signal light warning model,this paper constructs an early warning framework for the smart supply chain of Chinese cities.First,we construct an evaluation index system for the development of urban smart supply chain from four dimensions:smart infrastructure construction,human resource investment,capital investment,and enterprise innovation.Second,based on the sig⁃nal light warning model,we identify the signal light status of the secondary indicators in the four evaluation dimensions.Third,AHP is used to improve the weight setting of the signal light warning model.This paper identify the importance of different secondary indicators and calculate the comprehensive warning index,which generate early warning information to provide government depart⁃ments with suggestions on the smart supply chain development.