区域金融风险的空间关联、传染效应与风险来源

Spatial Correlation,Contagion Effect and Risk Sources of Regional Financial Risks

文章基于2000—2017年的面板数据,结合社会网络分析方法,分区域建立面板空间滞后模型,对三大经济区域的金融风险空间关联、风险传染及其风险系统来源进行研究。结果显示:三大经济区域的金融风险呈现明显的联动效应,风险波动幅度和大小较为接近;风险关联呈现空间网络结构,可分为四个不同的位置类型,其中,完全开放模块为区域金融风险的强风险源,经纪人模块为风险传染中介,地理位置和经济实力为影响地区所属模块的关键因素;银行市场和房地产市场为三大经济区域金融风险的主要系统来源。

Based on the panel data from 2000 to 2017 and combined with the social network analysis method,this paper establishes a panel spatial lag model by regions to study the spatial correlation,risk contagion and risk system sources of financial risks in three economic regions.The results are shown as follows:The financial risks of three economic regions present obvious linkage effect,and the range and scale of risk fluctuation are close to each other.Risk correlation presents spatial network structure,andit can be divided into four different types of locations,of which the fully open module is the strong risk source of regional financial risks,with the broker module to be the risk contagion intermediary,and the geographical location and economic strength to be the key factors affecting the module of regions.Banking market and real estate market are the main systematic sources of financial risks in three economic regions.