面向重大疫情下物资需求激增的生产流程平行优化方法——以新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情中医用防护服生产为例

Parallel Production Process Optimization Method for Material Demand Surge During a Major Epidemic——Take COVID-19 medical protective clothing production as an example

SARS、新型冠状病毒肺炎等重大传染病疫情容易引发突发性物资需求激增现象,造成物资短缺、社会经济混乱等次生衍生效应,危害巨大。传统“预测—应对”优化方法难以对此类动态、无序的激增物资生产需求进行准确地描述和优化。文章基于离散事件系统和平行应急管理理论,提出一种以“情景—任务—响应—优化”为主线的应急生产流程平行控制框架。从原理层面给出支持此类问题建模、仿真计算、平行控制与优化决策的全面解决方案。最后,以新冠肺炎疫情中医用防护服短缺为背景,将真实疫情对物资需求的不确定因素转化为仿真模拟过程,建立了动态改进的仿真决策模型,通过多阶段仿真分析、平行控制和优化决策,得到有效的防护服应急生产流程,验证了本方法的可操作性和有效性。

SARS,COVID-19 and other major infectious diseases are prone to lead to sudden surges in material demand,resulting in material shortages,socio-economic chaos and other secondary derivative effects,and great harm.It is difficult to accurately describe and optimize such dynamic and disorderly surging material production demand with the traditional“prediction-response”optimization method.Based on the theory of discrete event system and parallel emergency management,this paper proposes a parallel control framework for emergency production process with the main line of“scenario-task-response-optimization”.A comprehensive solution to support modeling,simulation,parallel control and optimization decision is presented in principle.Finally,taking the shortage of protective clothing for COVID 19 epidemic as the background,the uncertain factors of material demand for the real epidemic were transformed into the simulation process,and a dynamic improved simulation decision model was established.Through multi-stage simulation analysis,parallel control and optimization decision,the effective emergency production flow of protective clothing is obtained,and the operability and effectiveness of the method is verified.