基于ARMA模型预测我国货币供应量M1

To Forecast the Money Supply M1 by ARMA Model

货币供应量M1作为一个重要的先行指标,反映了经济周期和价格的波动。严密监测与调控货币供应量M1对抑制通货膨胀和促进经济健康增长具有重要的意义。因此,正确预测货币供应量M1的变动显得尤为重要。以我国货币供应量M1从2018年4月至2020年4月的月度数据为样本,通过Eviews统计软件,构建货币供应量的ARMA模型,经检验拟合效果较好且模型预测误差较小,最后利用该模型对未来3个月(2020年5—7月)的货币供应量M1进行预测。

As an important leading indicator, M1 can reflect the fluctuation of economic cycle and price. Closely monitoring and regulating the M1 money supply is important to promote healthy economic growth. Therefore, it is indispensable to correctly predict the M1 money supply changes. Based on the M1 money supply in China from April 2018 to April 2020 monthly data as sample, this paper constructs the ARMA model of money supply through Eviews statistical software. In the end, the paper uses the model to forecast the money supply in the next three months(from May 2020 to July 2020).