“一带一路”自由贸易区网络构建及其经济效应模拟

The Construction of B&R FTA Network and its Economic Effects Simulation

构建"一带一路"自由贸易区网络是中国自由贸易区战略的重中之重。文章基于"一带一路"沿线各次区域参与贸易一体化的差异化条件,探索自由贸易区网络构建的思路与路径,并运用GTAP模型模拟不同构建路径和阶段的经贸效应。研究发现:应以次区域为基础,以各次区域的核心国家或区域组织为突破口,从点到线,从线到面,先行实现各次区域一体化;然后短、中、长期任务相结合,分步推进,推动跨区域融合;最终形成以中国为主导的多层次、广覆盖、高质量的"一带一路"自由贸易区网络。网络的构建对沿线各次区域的GDP、社会福利和进出口贸易等均有显著正向影响,且先行者具有先动优势,有利于中国的产业转型和各次区域比较优势的发挥,但不同构建路径和阶段的经贸效应差异显著。

The construction of B&R FTA network is the top priority of China’s FTA strategy. Based on the differentiated conditions of participating in trade integration of the subregions along B&R, this paper explores the construction idea and path of B&R FTA network, and simulates the economic and trade effects of different paths and stages by using GTAP model. The research shows that we should first take the core countries or regional organizations as the breakthrough based on the subregions to achieve the regional integration from point to line and from line to surface. After that, it is essential to combine the short-term and long-term tasks step by step, so as to promote the cross-regional integration. Finally, a multilevel, wide coverage and high-quality B&R FTA network led by China will be formed. The construction of B&R FTA network has a significant positive impact on GDP, social welfare as well as import and export trade of all subregions along B&R. Furthermore, the pioneers have first-movement advantages which are conducive to China’s industrial transformation and the exertion of the comparative advantages of various subregions. However, the economic and trade effects of different construction paths and stages are significantly different.