考虑多重因素耦合的广义负荷特征曲线的模式分析

Pattern Analysis of Generalized Load Characteristic Curve Considering Coupling of Multiple Factors

在可再生能源、需求侧响应、电动汽车、储能等多重因素耦合影响下,电力负荷发生根本的变化,从传统的"纯负荷"逐渐演变为具有"负荷"+"电源"双重特性的广义负荷。这是一个新兴的、复杂和抽象的概念,分析研究其曲线模式和特征,是电力系统规划、调度的重要基础工作。针对当前缺乏广义负荷数据、缺少对广义负荷曲线特征研究的问题,文中提供了不同因素作用下的广义负荷模拟模型,进而对不同场景下的广义负荷曲线形态特征进行探索。首先,分别建立考虑电动汽车充电、新能源接入、响应电价、响应新能源波动的广义负荷模拟模型;基于此,提出综合考虑多重因素耦合作用下的广义负荷模拟模型。通过建立的模拟模型,可以生成未来广义负荷数据进行分析,解决目前缺少分析数据的问题。采用基于密度的DBSCAN聚类方法从生成的数据中提取出广义负荷特征曲线。最后,通过设置不同的广义负荷场景,对未来广义负荷特征曲线进行了仿真分析,获得了多种未来可能出现的广义负荷特征曲线。

Under the coupling influence of renewable energy, demand side response, electric vehicles(EVs), energy storage and other factors, the electrical load has undergone fundamental changes, gradually evolving from the traditional"pure load"to the generalized load with the dual characteristics of"load"+"power". Generalized load is a new, complex and abstract concept.Analyzing and studying the curve modes and characteristics of generalized load is an important basic work in the power system planning and scheduling. In view of the current lack of generalized load data and lack of research on the characteristics of generalized load curves, this paper provides the generalized load simulation model with different factors, and then explores the morphological characteristics of generalized load curves in different scenarios. Firstly, the generalized load simulation models considering EV charging, renewable energy access, response electricity price and response to new energy fluctuation are established respectively. Based on this, a generalized load simulation model considering coupling of multiple factors is proposed.Through the established simulation model, it is possible to generate future generalized load data for the analysis, and solve the current problem of lack of analysis data. The density-based spatial clustering of application with noise(DBSCAN) method is used to extract the generalized load characteristic curves from the generated data. Finally, by setting different generalized load scenarios,the future generalized load characteristic curves are simulated and analyzed, and various generalized load characteristic curves that may appear in the future are obtained.