高质量发展背景下税制结构对服务业升级影响的实证研究

Impact of Tax Structure on Service Industry Upgrading under the Background of High-quality Development:An Empirical Study

良好的税制结构能够实现税收筹措和资源有效配置,加快发展生产性服务业,助推服务业结构升级,实现经济高质量发展。在分别比较我国与发达国家税制结构和服务业发展差距的基础上,采用2004—2017年20个省份数据构造面板回归模型,分税类和税种考察了税制结构与服务业、生产性服务业和生活性服务业增长之间的数量关系。研究发现,我国间接税比重过高,不利于服务业的长足发展和优化升级;间接税比重尤其是增值税比重下降会显著提升服务业增加值;消费税比重下降仅对生产性服务业具有明显的促进作用。基于此,应逐步降低间接税比重,进一步推进增值税改革,为启动增值税立法创造有利条件;深化消费税改革,以产业结构调整为依托,配套财税体制改革,加快推进区域协调发展和新型城镇化。

Good tax structure can realize tax collection and effective allocation of resources,accelerate the development of producer service industry,boost the structural upgrading of service industry,and realize high-quality economic development.Based on comparing respectively the tax structure and service industry development gap between China and the developed countries and by using the data of 20 provinces from 2004 to 2017,this study constructs a panel regression model and investigates the quantitative relationship between tax structure and the growth of service industry,producer service industry and life service industry.It is found that the proportion of indirect tax is too high,which is not conducive to the rapid development and optimized upgrading of the service industry;the decline of the indirect tax proportion,especially the decline of value-added tax proportion,will significantly increase the added value of the service industry;and that the decline of the consumption tax proportion has a significant role only in promoting the producer service industry.Therefore,it is necessary to gradually reduce the proportion of indirect tax,further promote the reform of value-added tax,deepen the reform of consumption tax,and accelerate regional coordinated development and new urbanization by relying on industrial structure adjustment and matching reform of finance and taxation system.