印度退出RCEP的经济效应——基于GTAP模型的一般均衡模拟分析

Economic Effect of India Withdrawal from RCEP:A General Equilibrium Simulation Analysis Based on GTAP Model

在区域全面经济伙伴关系谈判即将结束之际,印度以现有协议不符合印度利益为由宣布退出谈判,引发各方关注。探讨印度退出RCEP对印度和其他成员的影响,对确定RCEP在印度退出问题上的立场具有重要现实意义。用GTAP模型模拟比较印度加入和退出情况下RCEP成立的经济贸易效应,发现RCEP成立会提升成员国经济和福利水平,印度退出RCEP将损害自身利益,降低包括中国在内的RCEP其他成员从该贸易协定生效中获得的经济利益,减缓非成员因RCEP成立受到的不利影响。因此,RCEP成员国应争取早日签署协定,分享协定带来的利益,同时积极争取印度回归谈判或者随后申请加入。中国要积极实施自贸区战略,规避其他国家签署自贸协定对中国可能产生的负面影响。

As the negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)are coming to an end,India announced its withdrawal from the talks on the ground that the existing agreement is not in line with India’s interests,which has aroused the attention of all the parties.To explore the impact of India exit from RCEP on India and the other member countries is of great practical significance for determining the position of RCEP on the issue of India exit.The GTAP model is used to simulate and compare the economic and trade effects of RCEP establishment under the circumstances of India accession and exit,and it is found that the establishment of RCEP will enhance the economic and welfare level of its member countries while India withdrawal from RCEP will damage its own interests,reduce the economic benefits of the other RCEP member countries,including China,from the entry into force of this trade agreement,and mitigate the adverse impact of RCEP establishment on non-member countries.Therefore,RCEP member countries should strive to sign the agreement as soon as possible,share the benefits brought about by the agreement,and actively strive for India’s return to the negotiations or its subsequent application for membership.China should actively implement the strategy of free trade zone so as to evade the possible negative impact of other countries’signing the free trade agreement.