金融发展、人口结构与经常项目余额研究

An Empirical Study on the Impact of Financial Development and Population Structure on Balance of Current Accounts

探究金融发展与人口结构对经常项目余额的影响机理,以世界110个国家2003-2017年的面板数据进行实证分析,发现金融发展程度、人口抚养比对经常项目余额有显著的负作用,同时随着人口抚养比的增加,金融发展对经常项目余额的影响加剧.将国家按照收入水平分组进行回归分析后发现,高收入水平国家经常项目余额对金融发展更敏感,对人口结构的反应相对平缓.低收入国家的情况则与高收入国家相反.因此,促进金融发展,防止金融过度脱实向虚,改善人口结构,是非高收入国家改善经常账户的首要任务.

Starting from the two aspects of financial development and population structure,this paper studies the impact of the two on the balance of current accounts.Through theoretical analysis,it chooses the influencing factors and builds a model,and an empirical analysis is madebased on the panel data of 110 countriesof the worldfrom 2003 to 2017.The results show that financial development degree and population dependency ratio have significant negative effects on current account balance.These countries are classified according to their income level,and the results of regression analysis show that high-income countries are more sensitive to the fluctuation of financial development,and their responses to the fluctuation of population structure are relatively flat,while an opposite picture is presented in low-income countries.Therefore,it is concluded that improving financial development and population structure is the primary task for non-high-income countries to improve their current account.