考虑双侧不确定性的负荷聚集商需求响应资源规划

Demand response resources planning for load aggregators considering bilateral uncertainty

电力市场中,负荷聚集商的投资运行面临着电价和用户需求响应行为的双侧不确定性。基于条件风险价值理论,以利润最大化和风险最小化为规划目标,建立了负荷聚集商的需求响应资源规划模型。提出的模型采用历史模拟法处理市场电价不确定性,采用随机模拟法描述用户响应行为不确定性。算例通过模拟投资者在不同风险偏好水平下的最佳规划方案,分析了负荷聚集商的投资利润与投资风险的均衡关系,为国内负荷聚集商的发展提供了有益参考。

In the power market,the investment and operation of load aggregator are facing uncertainty on both sides of electricity prices and consumers’demand response behavior.Based on the conditional value at risk,with profit maximization and risk minimi⁃zation as the planning goals,a demand response resources’plan⁃ning model for load aggregators is established.In the proposed model,historical simulation method is used to deal with the uncer⁃tainty from market electricity price,and random simulation method is used to describe uncertainty consumers’demand response be⁃havior.Through simulating the optimal planning of investors under different risk appetite levels,the example analyzes the equilibrium relationship between the investment profit and investment risk of load aggregators,which provides a useful reference for the develop⁃ment of domestic load aggregators.