电力市场代理交易目标客户群体分析

Analysis on target customer groups of agent transaction in power market

为协助售电公司提升市场化售电服务质量,利用支持向量机-混沌时间序列模型对陕西省可参与市场化售电的用户用电量进行动态预测。然后根据对未参与市场化用户的用电预测偏差和成本降幅测算结果,对未参与市场化售电的用户进行分析与评估,并给出售电公司开展售电业务的代理建议。最后根据考核要求,利用已参与市场化客户的动态预测偏差值来进一步对客户是否被考核进行预警分析。初步应用结果表明,售电公司从这2方面开展代理业务已取得较好成果,可进一步深化应用。

In order to assist the electricity sale company to improve the quality of the market⁃oriented sale service of electrici⁃ty,support vector machine⁃chaotic time series model is used to dy⁃namically predict the electricity consumption of users who can par⁃ticipate in market⁃oriented electricity sales in Shaanxi.Then,users who do not participate in the marketization are analyzed and evalu⁃ated according to the calculation results of the deviation of electric⁃ity consumption forecast and the decrease of cost.Agent sugges⁃tions are given for electricity sale companies to carry out sale busi⁃ness.Finally,according to the requirements of the assessment,the dynamic prediction deviation value of the users who have partici⁃pated in the marketization is used to further analyze whether the us⁃ers are assessed or not.The preliminary application results show that the electricity sale company has achieved good results in carry⁃ing out agency business from these two aspects,and the application can be further deepened.