大国竞争与特朗普政府对东南亚政策

Major Power Competition and the Trump Administration s Policy toward Southeast Asia

在大国竞争回归的背景下,特朗普政府明显加强了与中国在东南亚的战略安全博弈、数字地缘政治较量以及制度和治理理念阵地的争夺,从安全、经济、治理三个维度加大了对东南亚的投入,软硬综合制衡中国的特点突出。由于中国与东盟关系持续向好、特朗普政府的形象和信用赤字、东南亚国家对大国竞争的历史记忆和现实认知,以及美版“印太战略”与东盟国家对外战略文化之间不可调和的固有矛盾,东南亚难以成为美国遏制中国的一极。然而,东南亚国家典型的中间心态不但为美国介入地区事务提供了空间,也使它们在中美之间进行有选择性的“选边站”,进而危害地区安全环境。随着以竞争为主的对华政策在美国已经成为主流观点,美国对东南亚政策也难以延续此前的“善意忽视”传统,美国在本地区制衡中国的力度将持续增强。

With the return of major power competition to the U.S.national security strategy,the Trump administration has significantly strengthened its strategic security game and digital geopolitical tactics as well as its battle of ideas over institutional and governance concepts with China in Southeast Asia.It has enhanced ties with Southeast Asian countries on fronts of security,economy and governance so as to resist China with both hard and soft power.Southeast Asia is unlikely to become a stalwart for the U.S.to contain China due to the continuing improvement of relations between China and ASEAN,the image and credit deficit of the Trump administration in Southeast Asia,the historical memory and realistic cognition of major-power competition in Southeast Asian countries,as well as the inherent contradictions between the U.S.Indo-Pacific strategy and the foreign strategic culture of ASEAN countries.However,the typical centrist mentality of ASEAN countries provides opportunities for the U.S.to get involved in regional affairs and makes them pick sides on some issues between the U.S.and China,which will in turn endanger regional security.