政府组织如何制约美国国际战略转型?——基于美国国安会的分析

How Political Organizations Limit the Transformation of U.S.International Strategy:A U.S.National Security Council Perspective

冷战后,美国战略界形成了通过积极介入国际事务来维持全球优势地位的“深度参与”国际战略。在近年来美国相对衰落、国内战略收缩呼声高涨的情况下,该战略却仍保持高度稳定。美国政府组织具有依照既定行为路径及思维模式持续运作的属性,即组织惯性。组织惯性是美国国际战略呈现长期路径依赖的重要动力源。作为美国国际战略统筹及规划的枢纽性机制,美国国家安全委员会是美国政府组织惯性的集中体现。在“标准化操作程序”“支配性组织文化”“操作思维定势”“评价思维缺失”四种组织异化情境交织的情况下,国安会注重危机治理,轻视战略规划,最终导致美国国际战略难以转型。奥巴马与特朗普在任内试图克服这种惯性,但却遭遇不同程度的阻力。

The U.S.International Strategy of“Primacy,”which aims to maintain its liberal hegemony,was initially formed in the early days of the post-Cold War era.Why is this strategy still highly stable with the relative decline of the U.S.power in recent years?Existing literature mainly focuses on the internal,external,and social factors,and cannot account for this phenomenon.This article considers that some political organizations within the U.S.government possess a characteristic of“organizational inertia,”which makes them function within a given pattern and hard to change.With its influence,a trend of path dependence is reflected.As the core mechanism of U.S.strategic planning,the U.S.National Security Council is influenced by this inertia intensively,which contains four elements:“Standardized Operating Procedures,”“Dominant Organizational Culture,”“Operational Mind-set,”and“Evaluative Mind-loss.”Under this influence,the NSC focuses more on crisis management rather than strategic planning,and it finally leads to a dilemma in strategy transformation.