大国海外基建与地区秩序变动——以中国—东南亚基建合作为案例

Great-Power Overseas Infrastructure-Building and the Change of Regional Order:China's Infrastructural Cooperation in Southeast Asia as a Case

随着大国纷纷参与全球基础设施建设,基础设施建设成为当今国际政治中的一个重要议题。由大国发起的针对特定地区的海外基建展现出越来越明显的地区秩序塑造功能,这种功能清晰地反映在该地区国家间关系状态和行为模式变迁上。从理论上来说,大国基础设施建设能够通过信号、分化、杠杆和黏性等机制影响地区秩序,发挥引入地区动力、厘清安全敌友、制造溢出效果以及巩固秩序架构等功能。自“一带一路”倡议实施以来,中国在东南亚地区开展了大规模基础设施建设。这些海外基建倡议和项目实施对东南亚地区的国家间合作力度、地区安全架构参与、主体行为互动、地区影响力施展和大国竞争烈度等都造成了一定影响。当然,相关案例在展现中国通过基础设施建设外交推动东南亚地区秩序结构与互动过程发生显著变迁的同时,也显示中国对东南亚的基建外交并不必然会实现塑造秩序并促进中国与受援国良性互动的预期目标。海外基建的秩序影响机制受制于基建项目自身和施建过程中所内嵌的不确定性、特殊性、敏感性、冲突性和系统性要求等变量,这些变量最终可能扭曲或消减中国基建对东南亚地区秩序的影响。

When most great powers frequently participate in global infrastructure-building,infrastructure has gradually emerged as a significant issue in contemporary international politics.The overseas infrastructure building within a specific region led by great powers reveals increasingly constructive effects on regional order,which are clearly shown on interstate relationships and behavioral patterns in the given region.Theoretically,great-power infrastructure-building could pose impacts on regional order through the signaling,dividing,leveraging and sticking mechanisms,which may function within a specific region via introducing regional dynamics,identifying security amity-enmity,promoting spillover effects,and upholding regional architecture,etc.Since implementing the BRI,China has launched large-scale infrastructure activity in Southeast Asia.These overseas infra-activities pose clear impacts on the cooperating degree,security architecture,actor interaction,and regional influence in Southeast Asia.While some evidence shows that China s infrastructure diplomacy significantly transformed regional order such as regional structure and process in Southeast Asia,it also implies that China s infrastructure building is not guaranteed to achieve the goal in constructing a specific regional order and improving positive interaction between China and recipient countries.Hereby,the effects of overseas infrastructure-building on regional order are constrained by a handful of variables such as uncertain implementation,unique instrument,political sensitiveness,conflictual orientation and systematic configuration,etc.that are inherent in the infrastructure-building process.The variables finally distort or reduce the extent of China s infrastructure shaping regional order in Southeast Asia.