我国财政政策对全要素生产率的非线性冲击效应——基于总量和结构双重视角

Non-Linear Impact Effects of China's Fiscal Policy on Total Factor Productivity from the Dual Perspectives of Aggregate and Structure

在不同经济时期,我国政府若一味采取扩张的财政政策未必能有效提高全要素生产率(TFP)。基于此,本文构建带有随机波动率的时变参数因子扩展向量自回归模型,从总量和结构双重视角探究我国财政政策对TFP的非线性冲击效应。研究发现:(1)在总量层面,各时期财政支出的增加均对TFP产生显著的抑制作用,而财政税收的增加对TFP产生显著的促进作用;(2)在支出的结构层面,经济萧条和经济高涨时期的投资性支出、教育支出、科技支出,以及公共服务支出的增加均对TFP具有较强的激励作用,但经济平稳时期科技和教育支出的增加未能有效改善TFP;(3)在税收的结构层面,包括消费税、增值税、关税在内的商品税和个人所得税的增加均会显著抑制TFP提高,但企业所得税的增加可大幅提高TFP。因此,在经济新常态下,应构建“总量调控+结构优化”双轮驱动的财政政策,优化财政支出结构和税制结构,推动经济高质量发展。

The stubborn adoption of expansionary fiscal policies may not be able to effectively increase total factor productivity(TFP)in different economic periods.Based on this,this paper constructs a vector autoregressive model extended with time-varying parameters and with random volatility,and explores the non-linear impact of China's fiscal policy on TFP from the dual perspectives of aggregate and structure.The study finds that:1.At the aggregate level,the increase in fiscal expenditure in each period would significantly inhibit TFP,while the increase in fiscal revenue would significantly drive up TFP.2.At the structural level of expenditure,in times of both economic depression and high economic growth,the increase in investment expenditure,education expenditure,technology expenditure,and public service expenditure can strongly boost TFP,but the increase in S&T and education expenditure during the period of economic stability fails to effectively increase TFP.3.At the structural level of taxation,the increase in commodity tax,including consumption tax,value-added tax,and customs duties,and personal income tax will significantly inhibit the increase in TFP,but the increase in corporate income tax can significantly increase TFP.Therefore,under the new economic normal,policy makers should introduce a two-wheel drive fiscal policy of“aggregate control and structural optimization”to improve the structure of fiscal expenditures and taxation,and promote high-quality economic development.