土耳其叙北安全区政策的动因与走向分析

Turkey’s Safe Zone Policy in Northern Syria:Causes and Trends

2020年3月,土耳其军队与叙利亚和俄罗斯联合武装在叙北伊德利卜省等地爆发新一轮冲突,尽管之后俄土达成停火协议,并开展联合巡逻,但武装冲突仍持续不断,使叙利亚安全形势呈现恶化态势,导致围绕该地区的域内外各方博弈进一步升级。在土耳其的中东战略中,叙利亚北部地区一直是其南下谋求地缘政治利益的战略要地,长期以来是其实现扩张领土、遏制阿拉伯民族主义力量、联合美国对抗苏联、打击库尔德分离主义势力、构建地区霸权等目标的主要依托。叙利亚危机爆发后,土耳其的叙北战略进一步深化,推动叙北安全区建立,力图使之成为土耳其遏制库尔德力量、维护自身安全并同域内外各方进行利益博弈和权力竞争的依托。而安全区缺乏长效安全机制、无法有效解决难民问题、定位与性质模糊等问题及其服务于土耳其构建地区霸权的本质,则为叙利亚危机的和平解决增添了不确定性。

In March 2020,new conflicts broke out between the Turkish army and the Syrian and Russian armed forces in Syria’s Idlib province and other places.The security situation in Syria deteriorated again.The U.S.Department of Defense announced in September that it would increase its troops in northern Syria,while Russia has repeatedly launched air strikes against Syrian rebels in that area,and the game between parties inside and outside the region has further escalated.In Turkey’s Middle East strategy,the northern part of Syria has always been a strategic place for Turkey to advance geopolitical interests,and the main support for its goals of expanding its territory,containing Arab nationalist forces,uniting the U.S.against the Soviet Union,combating Kurdish separatist forces,and building regional hegemony.After the outbreak of the Syrian crisis,Turkey’s northern Syria strategy has further deepened and promoted the establishment of a security zone in northern Syria,making it a basis for Turkey to contain Kurdish forces,maintain its own security,and compete for interests and power with parties inside and outside the region.However,the lack of a long-term security mechanism,the inability to effectively solve the refugee problem,the ambiguous positioning and its core purpose of serving Turkey’s regional hegemony have added uncertainty to the peaceful resolution of the Syrian crisis.