跨国专利合作存续期及影响因素研究——基于中国与“一带一路”沿线国家专利数据

A Study of Duration and Influencing Factors of Transnational Patent Cooperation:Based on Patent Data of China and Countries Along the Belt and Road

基于2001—2017年“一带一路”区域的跨国专利合作数据,探索中国与“一带一路”沿线国家专利合作情况。首先使用生存分析的非参数估计方法描述中国在“一带一路”区域的跨国专利合作数量和存续期情况,然后建立随机效应的Cloglog离散时间模型,进一步探索多种接近性因素、跨国合作经验以及国家研发实力对“一带一路”区域跨国专利合作稳定性的影响。研究发现:(1)中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的专利合作已形成一定规模,但缺乏稳定性,有待进一步深化发展;(2)“一带一路”区域跨国专利合作的地理接近性影响日益减弱,而社会接近性和技术接近性均会不同程度影响合作进程的稳定性;(3)跨国合作经验累积以及国家研发实力提升对稳定“一带一路”区域跨国专利合作有着积极作用。基于研究结论,为建立深层次稳定的专利合作网络提出建议:中国可以通过不断增强自身创新能力,加强与“一带一路”区域国家的沟通,充分发挥自身在区域内的引导作用,实现资源合理配置、优化科技合作。

Based on the patent cooperation data of the Belt and Road region from 2001 to 2017,this paper explores the current situation of transnational patent cooperation between China and countries along the Belt and Road.First,the paper uses the nonparametric estimation of survival analysis method to describe the number and duration of China's transnational patent cooperation in the Belt and Road region,then uses survival analysis to establish the Cloglog discrete time model of random effects to explore the influences of proximity factors,experience of transnational cooperation and national R&D strength on the stability of transnational patent corporations.The results reveal that:firstly,China's patent cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road has initially formed a certain scale,but it lacks stability and needs to be further developed;secondly,the geographical proximity effects of the Belt and Road regional multinational patent cooperation is weakening day by day,however the social proximity and the technology proximity will affect the process of sustainable in varying degrees;thirdly,the accumulation of transnational cooperation experience and the improvement of national R&D strength play a positive role in maintaining the state of the Belt and Road regional transnational patent cooperation.According to the findings,suggestions are put forward for establishing a deep and stable network of patent cooperation:by enhancing innovation capabilities and strengthening communication with countries along the Belt and Road,China can effectively play its leading role to realize the rational allocation of resources and optimize scientific and technological cooperation.