民用重装备运输车动员征用规模需求预测研究

A Study of the Forecast of the Requirements in the Mobilization Scale of Civilian Heavy-Equipment Transport Vehicles

针对民用重装备公路运输力量需求数据难测算、定量分析研究少的问题,系统分析了3种重装备公路运输投送任务,重点围绕短途倒运与远程投送任务构建需求预测模型,研究提出基于多目标规划模型的民用重装备运输车动员规模需求分析与测算方法,可为开展相关专项民用运力国防动员需求分析提供有益的方法借鉴。

Aiming at solving the problems that the demand data of civilian heavy-equipment-road-transportation capacity is difficult to estimate and calculate,and thus there exist few of the quantitative analysis studies,systematically analyzed in the present paper are three kinds of heavy-equipment-road-transportation-delivery tasks,with stress placed on the establishment of demand prediction models for short-distance transportation and long-distance delivery tasks,and the demand analysis and calculation methods of the mobilization scale of civilian heavy-equipment-transportation vehicles based on the multi-objective planning model,which may provide effective data support for subsequent demand reporting and mobilization decision-making.This method may also provide a useful reference for carrying out the analyses of the related special civilian transportation capacity for national defense mobilization demand.