基于AHP和模糊理论的水工隧道TBM施工风险评估

TBM Construction Risk Assessment of Hydraulic Tunnel Based on AHP and Fuzzy Theory

采用TBM法施工的水工隧道受地质条件、设备等影响,施工过程中存在较多风险因素,为了降低TBM掘进施工风险,采用专家调查法对TBM施工风险进行分析,识别出存在的风险因素,并构建TBM施工风险评价指标体系,运用AHP法和模糊数学理论对TBM施工风险进行量化分析,评估综合风险水平并确定风险等级。以某水工隧道TBM项目为例,运用AHP和模糊数学理论相结合的方法对项目施工风险进行了评估,评估结果表明项目施工风险等级为极高,评估结果与现场实际施工情况吻合,得出了采用AHP和模糊理论建立的施工风险评估模型可以应用到水工隧道TBM施工风险评估中,能为项目制定针对性的风险控制措施,降低项目施工风险提供理论支撑。

The hydraulic tunnel constructed by TBM method is affected by geological conditions and equipment,and there are many risk factors in the process of construction.In order to reduce the risk of TBM construction,the expert survey method is used to analyze the risk of TBM construction,identify the risk factors,build the risk evaluation index system of TBM construction,and use AHP method and fuzzy mathematics theory to carry out quantitative analysis on the risk of TBM construction,evaluate the comprehensive risk level and determine the risk level.Taking the TBM project of hydraulic tunnel as an example,the construction risk of the project is evaluated by the method of AHP and fuzzy mathematics theory.The evaluation results show that the construction risk level of the project is very high,and the evaluation results are consistent with the actual construction situation on site.The construction risk evaluation model established by AHP and fuzzy theory can be applied to the TBM construction risk evaluation of hydraulic tunnel In addition,it can provide theoretical support for the project to formulate targeted risk control measures and reduce project construction risk.