林业纳入碳市场配额管理的综合减排效果——基于4ECGE模型仿真研究

Comprehensive Abatement Effects of Forestry Included into Carbon Market by the Way of Quota Management:Based on 4ECGE Model

通过构建一个同时包含能源消费、经济增长、碳排放和森林碳汇的4ECGE模型,在全行业参与、完全拍卖的理想碳市场中,模拟了将林业纳入碳市场配额管理这种碳排放权交易机制设计(一定比例的人工林碳汇纳入碳市场配额管理,同时对天然林碳汇给予一次性补偿)的综合减排效果。研究发现,与直接减排情景相比,林业纳入碳市场配额管理可以降低低碳政策对GDP、各行业生产及国际竞争力的负面影响,有助于促使各行业更多地采用低碳能源代替碳密集型能源、低成本实现减排目标,并实现森林蓄积量、森林碳汇和森林碳储量的持续稳定增长。通过比较相同林业碳汇纳入比例下外延边际效应和内涵边际效应,发现提高森林质量对森林增长、碳汇交易量和交易额的影响大于单纯依靠植树造林扩大林地面积。因此,将林业纳入碳排放权交易市场配额管理可以同时实现节能、降碳、增汇目标,并与经济发展良性互动,这为构建纳入林业行业的全国统一碳交易市场提供了重要参考依据。

This paper constructs a 4ECGE model that includes energy consumption,economic growth,carbon emissions and forest carbon sinks.In an ideal carbon market with industry-wide participation and complete auctions,this paper simulates the comprehensive abatement effects of the design of carbon emission trading mechanism that forestry is included into carbon market by the way of quota management.Under this mechanism,a certain proportion of planted forest carbon sinks are included into the carbon market by the way of quota management,and natural forest carbon sinks are compensated once.It shows that:1)Compared with the direct abatement scenario,the inclusion of forestry in carbon market by the way of quota management can reduce the negative impact of low-carbon policies on GDP,production of various industries and international competitiveness.2)This helps to achieve emission reduction targets at low cost,and encourages industries to use low-carbon energies instead of carbon-intensive energies.3)This can achieve sustained and stable growth of forest stocks,forest carbon sinks and forest carbon stocks.4)Comparing the extensive margin and the intensive margin with the same inclusion ratio of forestry carbon sinks,it can be found that the impact of improving forest quality on forest growth is greater than simply expanding the area of forest lands by afforestation,and the carbon sinks trading volume is also higher than the latter.The above research shows that,the inclusion of forestry into carbon market by the way of quota management can simultaneously achieve a benign interaction between energy conservation,carbon reduction,carbon sinks increase and economic development.It provides an important reference for building a unified national carbon trading market which includes forestry by the way of quota management.