基于综合评价法的农机装备水平研究及预测

Research and Forecast of Agricultural Machinery Equipment Level Based on Comprehensive Evaluation Method

农机装备水平的高低、结构是否合理,将影响农业综合生产能力及现代化大农业的发展。为此,选取农机装备水平中的农业机械总动力、大中型拖拉机、小型拖拉机、大中型拖拉机配套农具、小型拖拉机配套农具、农用排灌动力机械、联合收获机、机动割晒机及农用运输车作为评价农机装备水平的指标,采用熵值法确定各指标权重,再根据综合评价模型计算得出各年度的农机装备水平综合得分情况,对黑龙江垦区农机装备水平进行评价。然后,基于二次曲线,建立回归函数模型,预测未来一段时间内农机装备发展情况。结果表明:在未来黑龙江垦区农机总动力仍将继续增加,大中型拖拉机及其配套农具占据主导地位,小型拖拉机及其配套农具持续减少,垦区农机装备加速换代升级,农机装备结构进一步优化。

The level and structure of agricultural machinery and equipment will affect the comprehensive production capacity of agriculture and the development of modern agriculture.Therefore,in this paper,the total power of agricultural machinery,large and medium-sized tractors,small tractors,agricultural tools for large and medium tractors,agricultural tools for small tractors,agricultural drainage and irrigation power machinery,combine harvesters,motor mowers cutter and agricultural transport vehicles are selected as the indicators to evaluate the level of agricultural machinery and equipment,and the weight of each indicator is determined by the entropy method,and then according to them the comprehensive evaluation model calculates the comprehensive score of agricultural machinery equipment level in each year,and evaluates the level of agricultural machinery equipment in Heilongjiang reclamation area.Then,based on the quadratic curve,a regression function model is established to predict the development of agricultural machinery and equipment in the future.The results show that the total power of agricultural machinery in Heilongjiang reclamation area will continue to increase in the future,large and medium tractors and their supporting agricultural tools will dominate,small tractors and their supporting agricultural tools will continue to decrease,agricultural machinery equipment in reclamation area will accelerate replacement and upgrading,and the structure of agricultural machinery equipment will be further optimized.