中国对美战略的演进:模式及挑战

China's Strategic Evolution towards the United States:Model and Challenge

中美关系近年来出现了深度动荡,这与两国国内正在发生的前所未有的巨大变革有着莫大的关联。未来中美关系的实质性“竞合”是否会演化成为一种“敌对伙伴”关系?分析中国对美战略必须从三个角度考虑问题:一是中国是否有一个连贯、明晰和准确的对美战略目标,这是直接关系到中国对美国的判断是否正确的决定性因素。二是中国是否有全局性的或“顶层设计”性的对美战略规划和战略方针,确定不同时期对美工作重点、主要工作方向,不争一时之短长,在运用或协调政治、经济、心理、军事力量方面发挥出最大效力。三是“底线思维”,为避免对美战略出现大的失误而根据形势的变化及时评估战略效应,调整或修正战略目标及手段,确保中国对美战略赢得最广泛的国内和国际支持。

Deep turbulence over the past few years in US-China relations is partially caused by unprecedented institutional changes in both countries.There are many analyses on American domestic politics and foreign policy.However,there is a pressing need to explore the evolution of China's strategies on the U.S.from the Chinese perspective.In the Biden era,can the relationship be“reset”and tensions eased?Will the“competing and cooperative”relationship turn into a“adversary partnership”in the future?To examine China's strategies towards the U.S.,three issues need to be considered:Firstly,whether China has a consistent,clear,and accurate strategy towards the U.S.These are the key elements for China to make an accurate judgment on the U.S.Secondly,whether China has a“top-design”on guidelines,priorities and directions to integrate various political,economic and military elements into the general policy;thirdly,whether China has a“bottom-line”thinking to evaluate and review the past policies towards the U.S.and thus makes quick and relevant adjustments to win domestic and international support.