从克里米亚入俄看破解南海困局之道——以美俄战略博弈的视角

The Solution for the South China Sea Quagmire from Crimea's Entry into Russia:A Perspective of U.S.-Russian Strategic Game

俄罗斯于2014年强势推动克里米亚闪电入俄,其与中国在南海的困局有诸多类似情境。从地缘政治态势看,中国与俄罗斯都不同程度遭遇美国战略与安全空间的挤压;克里米亚之于俄罗斯与南海之于中国,均有着相近的战略地位与类似的历史情结;中俄面临着类似的外交博弈、国际法之争与经济战,甚至是军事考量的情境。克里米亚入俄是俄罗斯军事、经济、国际法、外交、宣传与心理战等诸多手段综合运用的结果,是俄罗斯王道与霸道交互作用的结果,是俄罗斯与美欧挤压与反挤压、战略意志与战略手段较量及争夺的结果。这对中国破解南海困局以及中美竞合提供了借鉴与启示,值得我们深思与研究。

Russia's strong push for Crimea􀆳s entry into Russia in 2014 has many similar situations with China's dilemma in the South China Sea(SCS).From a geopolitical perspective,both China and Russia have encountered the varying degrees squeeze of the U.S.strategic and security space;Both Crimea to Russia and South China Sea to China have similar strategic status and similar historical complex;and China and Russia face similar diplomatic games,international law disputes and economic warfare,and even military considerations.Crimea's entry into Russia is the result of the comprehensive use of Russia's military,economic,international law,diplomacy,propaganda,and psychological warfare,the interaction between Russia's Kingcraft and hegemons,the squeeze and counter-squeeze,and the contest of strategic wills and means between Russia and the U.S.and Europe.This provides a useful reference and enlightenment for China to break through the predicament in the South China Sea and even for Sino-US coopetition.It is worthy of our deep consideration and study.