北极安全战略环境及中国的政策选择

Arctic Security Strategy Environment and China's Policy Choice

大国竞争的回归是当前主导性的安全研究范式,这一范式同样适用于概括当前的北极安全研究。2019年5月蓬佩奥的演讲标志着北极地缘战略新节点的出现,新冠疫情使北极地区加速进入所谓“战略竞争的新时代”。疫情暴露和凸显了与北极安全相关的脆弱性,站在中国的立场,对未来北极安全困境的想象主要有三个层面:一是新冷战进行时,二是中美俄战略大三角,三是中国与北极脱钩。在自身北极参与能力的限定下,中国面临的政策选项包括加大北极投入、抽离北极事务、以创造性介入寻求新的平衡。拜登政府在北极的政策选择或将重塑北极安全战略环境,并直接影响到面向未来的中国北极战略。

The return of Great Power Competition is the leading paradigm on international security studies,which applies to the Arctic as well.Pompeo's speech of May,2019 signals the emerging new turning point of Arctic geo-strategy,while the COVID-19 Pandemic speeds up the“New Era of Strategic Competition”.The Arctic security-related fragility has been fully exposed to the Pandemic.There are three imaginary scenarios about the future Arctic security dilemma from China's perspective,namely,the ongoing new Cold War,China-USRussia strategic triangle relations,and the decoupling of China and the Arctic.Restricted by China's capacity to participate in Arctic affairs,policy options facing China include:First,enlarging its Arctic involvement;Second,withdrawal from Arctic affairs;Third,to pursue new balance with creative involvement.The Arctic policy under Biden administration is supposed to reshape the strategic environment on Arctic security,affecting directly on China's future Arctic strategy.