高炮、火箭人工增雨效果统计检验方案设计中的几个问题讨论

Discussion on design of statistical test scheme for effect of artificial precipitation enhancement by artillery and rocket

基于理想化的人工增雨概念模型,分析了地面增雨作业效果检验试验区设计的基本特征,以及作业轮次、云系移动速度、催化云系对试验区中雨量点的覆盖率等因素对效果评估的影响,主要结果为:1)云系移动速度应该作为目标云选取的一个重要指标,它直接影响试验区的长度和作业点的布局,对效果评估也有很大的影响,不同移动速度的目标云系将人工增加的降水分散到不同的区域,增加了效果评估的难度。2)存在一段最短时间的雨量资料可以用于效果评估,它由试验区长度、作业时间和目标云移动速度共同决定。3)分别给出了作业时间与用于效果统计的雨量时间之比、催化云系对试验区雨量点的覆盖率影响相对增雨率的计算公式,据此定量分析了以色列Ⅰ随机试验资料,结果表明要评估出一定的相对增雨率,需要人工催化云系具有较大的增雨量,即较为显著地改变自然降水。

According to observations of field test and numerical simulations,the basic characteristics of the design of the test area for the effect test of surface precipitation enhancement operation are analyzed by using the ideal conceptual model of artificial precipitation enhancement.The influence of operation sequence,moving speed of cloud system,and coverage rate of catalytic cloud system on the rainfall points in the test area on the effect evaluation is investigated.The results are shown as follows.1)The moving speed of cloud system should be regarded as an important indicator of selecting target cloud,which directly affects the length of the test area and the layout of operation points,and also has a great impact on the effect evaluation.The target cloud system with different moving speed distributes the artificial precipitation to different areas,which increases the difficulty of the effect evaluation.2)There exists the rainfall data of the shortest time span,which is jointly determined by the length of the test area,operation time,and moving speed of the target cloud,and it can be used to evaluate the effect.3)The calculation formulas of the ratio of operation time to rainfall time used for statistics of effect,and the relative precipitation enhancement rate by the influence of catalytic cloud system on the coverage rate of the rainfall points in the test area are given,respectively.Based on these formulas,the randomized experiment data of Israel I are quantitatively analyzed.The results show that to evaluate a certain relative precipitation enhancement rate,it is necessary to artificially catalyze the cloud system to have a greater precipitation enhancement,that is,to change the natural precipitation significantly.