全球钨消费历史分析及需求预测

Historical Analysis and Demand Forecast of Global Tungsten Consumption

文章基于全球钨消费增长缓慢,美国、日本和欧盟钨消费趋于平稳,中国钨需求增速放缓的背景,通过分析全球钨消费历史和消费结构,运用情景分析方法,参考"S"形消费规律,对中国及全球钨需求进行定量预测。预测到2025年全球钨需求为11万吨,2021—2030年中国钨需求为94万吨。依据我国钨基础储量数据,判断当前我国和全球钨资源供应宽松。建议保持适度钨资源供给,提升行业盈利水平。

Based on the slow growth of global tungsten consumption,steady tungsten consumption in the U.S.,Japan and the E.U.,and a slow growth in China’s tungsten demand,the paper makes a quantitative prediction of China’s and global tungsten demand by analyzing the history and structure of global tungsten consumption,applying scenario analysis method and referring to the S-shaped consumption rule.It is predicted that the global tungsten demand will be 110,000 tons by 2025 and China’s tungsten demand will be 940,000 tons from 2021 to 2030.According to the basic tungsten reserves data in China,it is judged that the current supply of tungsten resources in China and the world is sufficient.It is recommended to maintain a moderate supply of tungsten resources and improve the profitability of the industry.