黄河龙门水文站实用水文预报方案改进及应用

Improvement and Application of Practical Hydrologic Forecasting Schemes at Longmen Station of the Yellow River

依据最新河道条件及延长后的洪水资料序列对龙门水文站3个实用水文预报方案进行重新定线,使图表方案动态化,将传统的预报技术转变为可以进行自动作业预报的预报系统。结合吴堡—龙门区间1981—2018年23场典型洪水对比预报方案修订前后的模拟精度,并与黄河洪水预报系统中马斯京根演算法模拟结果进行比较。结果表明:修订后的预报方案对洪峰流量的模拟精度较修订前有明显改善,马斯京根演算法模拟结果精度稍高于实用水文预报方案,但实用水文预报方案对以吴堡来水为主的洪水模拟精度较高,而龙门水文站较大洪水主要来自吴堡以上。建议作业预报时几种预报方案联合运用,进一步提高龙门站洪水预报精度。

According to the latest river channel conditions and the extended flood data,the three practical flood forecasting schemes of Long⁃men Hydrologic Station were recalibrated.The chart schemes were made dynamic and the traditional forecast technology was transformed into a forecasting system which could make automatic operation forecast.The simulated accuracy of the schemes before and after the improvement was combined with 23 typical measured flood data from 1981 to 2018 in Wubao⁃Longmen reach.The forecasting results were compared with Muskingum routing method in the flood forecasting system.The results show that the simulation accuracy of revised schemes for flood peak is obviously improved compared with traditional schemes and a little less than the Muskingum routing method,but the highest accuracy of the practical flood forecasting schemes is present for the floods which is mainly from Wubao Station.The larger flood at the Longmen Station main⁃ly comes from the river reach above Wubao Station.It is suggested that several forecasting schemes should be combined to improve the accura⁃cy of flood forecasting in Longmen Station.