黄河流域用水演变特征及水资源情势识别研究

Water Use Variability and Water Resources Situation Identification of the Yellow River Basin,China

明晰黄河用水演变特征、探究黄河未来水资源情势,对流域有效管理水资源、合理制定规划方案、优化布局重大水利工程具有重要意义。利用多种方法开展了黄河流域用水演变特征分析、用水变化影响因素判别及未来水资源开发利用情势识别研究,结果表明:黄河流域1980—2016年用水增长主要为城镇生活用水,37 a增加了37.0亿m^3;2012—2016年工业用水量有所下降,2000—2016年农业用水量整体呈现减少特征,农业节水量能够满足新增灌溉面积用水需求;未来黄河流域生态环境用水量仍将呈现持续增长态势,这可能会加剧黄河流域水资源供需矛盾;黄河流域2001—2016年总耗水量整体呈增加趋势,地表水是黄河流域主要水源,但现阶段流域用水仍无法摆脱对地下水的依赖,流域水资源利用效率与发达国家和世界先进水平相比仍有一定差距。考虑到气候变化和人类活动的影响,黄河河川径流量变化存在较大的不确定性,在南水北调西线工程生效前,流域水资源与水环境对经济社会发展的约束将日益凸显。黄河流域农业灌溉尚有一定的节水潜力,可通过加大灌区节水改造、完善田间工程配套等措施实现流域深度节水。

The study on water use variability and future water resources situation plays a key role in the effective management of water re⁃sources,the reasonable schemes planning and the layout of key water conservancy projects for the Yellow River basin.Various methods were employed to analyze the variability of water use,distinguish the impact factors with regard to water use change and identify the potential future situation of water resources development for the Yellow River basin.The results show that the main increase of 3.7 billion m^3 for water use in the Yellow River basin is urban domestic use from 1980 to 2016;the industrial water use is slightly decreased from 2012 to 2016,and the ag⁃ricultural water use,as a whole,shows the reducing characteristic from 2000 to 2016,however,the agricultural water⁃saving can meet the water demand of the newly increased irrigated area;the eco⁃environmental water use will continue to increase,which may aggravate the con⁃tradiction between water supply and demand in the Yellow River basin.Besides,from 2001 to 2016,the total water consumption of the Yellow River basin also shows an overall increasing trend,that is,surface water is the main water source and groundwater use is inevitable.The water utilization efficiency in the basin still has a certain gap between the advanced levels of developed countries and the world.Due to the impact of climate change and human activity,uncertainty exists in the runoff change of the Yellow River.Before the Western Route of the South⁃to⁃North Water Diversion Project comes into force,the constraints of water resources and water environment in the Yellow River basin on economic and social development will become increasingly prominent.Agricultural irrigation in the Yellow River basin has a certain water⁃saving potential,which can be realized by increasing water⁃saving transformation in irrigated areas and perfecting supporting facilities of field projects.Research can support the ecological conservation and high⁃quality development of the Yellow River basin.