“一带一路”背景下中国新疆对外贸易升级——格局演变与效率提升

China's Xinjiang Foreign Trade Upgrades Under the Backgroundof The“Belt and Road ”Initiative: Pattern Evolution and Efficiency Improvement

“一带一路”建设为新疆对外贸易发展带来了契机,研究中国新疆对外贸易效率及其影响因素,对促进新疆对外贸易升级、推动丝绸之路经济带核心区建设意义重大。文章在分析新疆对外贸易发展及时空演变的基础上,运用随机前沿引力模型测算中国新疆与主要贸易国间的进出口及出口贸易效率和潜力。研究表明,要素禀赋互补性、国土接壤、内陆国家、贸易自由度、投资自由度对双边贸易有正向作用;贸易伙伴国经济发展水平、双边距离、“一带一路”、金融自由度等未能抵消双边贸易壁垒;中国新疆与哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦和俄罗斯等国具有较高的进出口贸易效率,与阿富汗、巴基斯坦和印度的贸易拓展空间较大;中国新疆与中亚五国、俄罗斯、蒙古等国具有较高的出口贸易效率,与巴基斯坦、新加坡和印度尼西亚贸易拓展空间较大。

The“Belt and Road”construction has brought opportunities for the development of Xinjiang′s foreign trade.The study of Xinjiang′s foreign trade efficiency and its influencing factors is of great significance to the promotion of Xinjiang’s foreign trade upgrading and the construction of the core area of the Silk Road Economic Belt.Based on the analysis of Xinjiang′s foreign trade development and time-space evolution,this paper uses the stochastic frontier gravity model to measure the efficiency and potential of the import and export and export trade between Xinjiang and major trading countries.Studies have shown that the complementari⁃ty of factor endowments,territorial borders,landlocked countries,trade freedom,and investment freedom have positive effects on bi⁃lateral trade;the economic development level of trading partner countries,bilateral distance,the“Belt and Road”,financial free⁃dom,etc.cannot offset bilateral trade barriers;Xinjiang has high import and export trade efficiency with countries such as Kazakh⁃stan,Kyrgyzstan,and Russia,and there is more room for expansion of trade with Afghanistan,Pakistan and India;Xinjiang and five Central Asian countries,Russia,Mongolia,etc.have a high export trade efficiency,and there is more room for expansion of trade with Pakistan,Singapore and Indonesia.