我国疾病预防控制中心人力资源配置公平性及预测研究——基于集聚度和灰色预测模型

Research on equity and prediction of health resource allocation in china’s center for disease control and prevention: based on agglomeration and grey prediction model

目的探讨2014—2018年我国疾病预防控制中心(以下简称"疾控中心")人力资源配置现状及其公平性,预测2019—2021年我国疾控中心人力资源数量,发现问题,为进一步优化我国疾控中心人力资源配置提供参考依据。方法对我国疾控中心人力资源基本情况进行描述性分析,并采用集聚度分析其公平性。运用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)预测2019—2021年我国疾控中心人力资源数量。结果 2014—2018年我国疾控中心人力资源状况无明显改善。按地理面积配置的卫生人力资源集聚度,东、中、西部地区分别在2.770 4~3.560 9、1.706 7~2.174 3、0.321 0~0.493 3之间。按人口配置的卫生人力资源集聚度,东、中、西部地区分别在0.747 9~0.962 2、0.958 4~1.211 8、0.845 9~1.293 0之间。从预测值上看,截至2021年我国疾控中心卫生技术人员、其他技术人员、管理人员数量分别为140 190、15 404、12 926人,仍尚存不足,有待优化。结论 2014—2018年我国疾控中心卫生技术人员和管理人员呈下降趋势;人力资源配置区域分布不均、差异明显,东部地区地理可及性较好,西部地区人口可及性较好;疾控中心不同性质的人员配置存在差异,管理人员有所不足,管理水平较低;疾控中心人员职称结构、学历水平总体趋好,但职称结构仍不完善,学历水平相对偏低。

Objective To explore the current situation and fairness of human resource allocation of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention( hereinafter referred to as the "CDC") from 2014 to 2018,to predict the number of human resources of the CDC from 2019 to 2021,to find problems,and to further optimize the Provide reference basis for human resource allocation of control center. Methods Descriptive analysis of the basic situation of human resources in my country’s CDC and analysis of its fairness using agglomeration. The grey prediction model GM( 1,1) is used to predict the number of human resources of my country’s CDC from 2019 to 2021. Results From 2014 to 2018,the human resources situation of my country’s CDC has not improved significantly. The concentration of health human resources according to geographic area is 2. 770 4-3. 560 9,1. 706 7-2. 174 3,and 0. 321 0-0. 493 3 in the eastern,central,and western regions,respectively. The concentration of health human resources allocated by population is 0. 747 9-0. 962 2,0. 958 4-1. 211 8,and 0. 845 9-1. 293 0 in the eastern,central,and western regions,respectively. From the predicted value,as of 2021,the number of health technical personnel,other technical personnel,and management personnel of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention was 140 190,15 404,and 12 926,respectively. There are still deficiencies and need to be optimized. Conclusion From 2014 to 2018,the health technicians and management personnel of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Control showed a downward trend;the distribution of human resources is unevenly distributed and the differences are obvious. The geographic accessibility in the eastern region is better,and the population accessibility in the western region is better;disease control There are differences in the staffing of different natures of the center. The management personnel are inadequate and the management level is low. The structure of the professional title and academic level of the CDC personnel is generally better,but the structure of the professional title is still not perfect,and the educational level is relatively low.