基于MaxEnt模型评估槭属鸡爪槭组物种的空间分布

Prediction of Potentially Suitable Distribution of Section Palmata(Acer)in East Asia Based on MaxEnt

槭属是北温带重要的树木属之一,而集中分布于东亚的鸡爪槭组是该地区槭属植物中的代表。基于1152个现代鸡爪槭组植物样本分布数据,运用MaxEnt模型预测鸡爪槭组植物在末次盛冰期、当前和未来气候情景下的潜在分布区。结果表明,受试者工作特征曲线下的面积(AUC)=0.986,表明MaxEnt模型的预测准确度极高;现今鸡爪槭组植物主要分布于我国西南、华中、华南、华东以及朝鲜半岛、日本岛等地区;末次冰期之后,鸡爪槭组植物向北扩张至现今的山东半岛、朝鲜半岛以及日本全境等相对较高纬度地区;未来鸡爪槭组植物的分布区范围,可能会出现“两端”收缩的趋势。探讨鸡爪槭组植物对不同时期气候变化的响应,掌握该组植物分布区的变化,对于了解东亚温带乔木树种的形成具有重要的意义。

Acer is one of the most important tree genera in the northern temperate zone.The section Palmata Pax,which is concentrated in east Asia,is a representative of the Acer genus in east Asia.In this paper,1152 samples of section Palmata were selected to study the potential distribution of this section during current,Last Glacial Maximum,and future periods.The results showed that the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve(AUC)reached 0.986.The accuracy of the model prediction results was high and it can be used to predict the geographical distribution of section Palmata.The plants of section Palmata are mainly distributed in southwest,central,south and east China,Korean peninsula,Japan island and other regions nowadays.After last glacial maximum,the niche of section Palmata would expanded northward to the relatively high latitudes of Shandong peninsula,Korea peninsula and Japan.The distribution area of section Palmata in southern North China,Huanghuai may contracted from both ends in future.Predicting the potential distribution areas of section Palmata in different periods would be helpful to understand the formation of flora in east Asia.