某库岸滑坡潜在激发涌浪预测

Prediction of Potential Excitation Surge of Landslide on a Reservoir Bank

结合勘测成果以及多年的表观、测斜监测资料分析,DS滑坡整体处于间歇性缓慢蠕滑状态,产生整体性失稳的可能性不大。但鉴于地质条件的复杂性和不确定性,不排除在极端不利条件下发生整体快速下滑的可能,潜在激发涌浪,从而影响周边居民点的安全。通过理论计算以及工程类比分析认为,DS滑坡体在极端不利情况下滑入江中引起涌浪至对岸的最大高度为49.68m,涌浪向上游到达街场时的浪高约12.8m。

Combining with survey results and analysis of monitoring data,DS landslide as a whole is in an intermittent and slow creep state,and the possibility of overall instability is unlikely.However,due to the complexity and uncertainty of geological conditions,the possibility of an overall rapid decline under extreme adverse conditions is not ruled out,which may trigger surges and thus affect the safety of surrounding residential areas.Through theoretical calculations and engineering analogy analysis,it is believed that the maximum height of surge to the opposite bank caused by DS landslide mass sliding into the river under extremely unfavorable conditions is 49.68m,and the height of surge to the upstream is about 12.8m.