基于AHP方法的风电机组安全与风险评估

Wind Turbine Safety and Risk Assessment based on AHP Method

安全和风险评估是一种综合考量风险发生的概率、后果,并加以定量分析的跨学科理论。该理论能够帮助人们从安全可靠性、成本经济性等角度预防风险的发生,对控制风险、成本有促进意义。风电机组作为一种典型的集机械、电子、电气等于一身的复杂系统,生产、运维成本高,一般的可靠度计算往往不足以全面评价其安全性能。文章结合层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP),以某风电机组的升举系统为例,将风电机组安全问题层次化,计算相对重要程度因子,对上下层级间的影响加以综合评估,结果表明,AHP方法对安全与风险评估普适性强、参考价值高。

Safety and risk assessment is an interdisciplinary theory that comprehensively considers and quantitatively analyzes the probability and consequences of risk occurrence.This theory helps people prevent risks from the perspectives of safe reliability and cost economy etc.,and promotes risk and cost control.As a typical complex system integrating machinery,electronics,and electrics,costs for manufacturing,operating and maintaining wind turbine are very high,and ordinary reliability computation is insufficient to fully assess its safety performance.Taking the lifting system of a wind turbine as an example,the article adopts the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)to hierarchize the safety assessment of the wind turbine,calculate the relative importance factor,and comprehensively assess the impact among hierarchies.The results show that AHP method is of general applicability and high reference value for safety and risk assessment of wind turbines.