多源降雨数据在官山河山洪预报中的应用

Application of multi-source rainfall data in the flash flood forecast of Guanshan River Basin

为提高山区小流域山洪预报精度,以官山河流域为研究对象,探究多源降雨数据在洪水预报中的应用前景。将雷达降雨数据、热带降雨观测计划(tropical rainfall measuring mission,TRMM)卫星降雨数据、地面雨量站数据分别作为TOPMODEL(topography-based hydrological model)模型的数据输入进行洪水模拟,对比分析不同来源降雨数据下的模型模拟结果。结果表明:雷达降雨数据作为模型驱动时,洪峰流量误差最小,平均误差仅为5.4%,径流深误差模拟效果也较好,平均误差为10.84%;TRMM卫星降雨数据作为模型驱动时虽然径流深误差较小,平均误差为7.44%,但是洪峰模拟误差较大,平均误差为80.34%;地面雨量站数据作为模型驱动时模拟效果不佳,洪峰误差的平均值为39.71%,径流深误差的平均值为18.58%。综合分析,雷达测雨作为模型驱动时在官山河流域的山洪模拟过程中效果最好,其在山洪预警预报中有很好的应用前景。

In order to improve the accuracy of mountain flood forecasting in small watershed,this paper took Guanshan River Basin as the research object to explore the prospects of application in flood forecasting.Radar rainfall data,tropical rainfall measuring mission(TRMM)satellite rainfall data,and ground rainfall station data were used as data inputs of the topography-based hydrological model(TOPMODEL)model for flood simulation,and the model simulation results of rainfall data from different sources were compared and analyzed.The results show that:when the model is driven by the radar rainfall data,the flood peak flow error is the smallest,with an average error of 5.4% only,and the runoff depth simulation effect is also good,with an average error of 10.84%.When the model is driven by the TRMM satellite rainfall data,although the runoff depth error is the smallest,with an average error of 7.44%,the flood peak simulation error is large,with an average error of 80.34%.The simulation effect is not good when the model is driven as the ground rainfall station data,the average value of the flood peak error is 39.71%,and the average value of the runoff depth error is 18.58%.Comprehensive analysis shows that radar rainfall measurement as the model driver has the best effect in the flash flood simulation process of the Guanshan River Basin,and it has a good application prospect in the flash flood forecasting.