对近期与中长期中国粮食安全的再认识

Recognition of Recent and Mid-long Term Food Security in China

粮食安全始终是国家经济、社会稳定与发展的基础,突如其来的新冠疫情在影响中国与全球经济发展的同时,也引起社会各界对粮食安全问题的广泛关注。本文分析了中国粮食安全保障现况、近期各界关注粮食安全的主要问题和未来面临的挑战,并预测中长期主要粮食供需变动趋势。分析表明,近期和中长期中国口粮绝对安全,未来饲料粮(玉米和大豆等)进口将逐渐增长以保障国内畜产品的供给安全;而笼统的粮食安全概念往往误导社会各界和政府。口粮安全、饲料或畜产品安全是中国粮食安全已至食物安全的关键问题。最后,本文提出保障国家粮食安全的相关政策建议。

Food security has always been the foundation of national social-economic stability and development.The recent sudden outbreak of COVID 19 epidemic,while affecting the economic development of China and the world,has also aroused widespread concern from all sectors of society about food security.This article analyzes the current situation of China’s food security,the main issue of food security,and the challenges we will face in the future.This article also predicts the change directions of the supply and demand of major food in the mid-long term.It shows that China’s grain rations are absolutely safe both in recent and mid-long term.In the future,the imports of feed grains(corn and soybeans,etc.) will gradually increase to ensure the security of domestic livestock products;the general concepts of food security often mislead all sectors of the community and the government.Ration safety,feed or livestock products safety is the key issue of China’s food safety.Based on the analysis of this article,we finally put forward relevant policy to ensure national food security.