自然灾害对经济增长影响研究——基于制度、政府救灾支出的调节视角

A Study on the Impact of Natural Disaster on Economic Growth--Based on the Perspective of the Adjustment from Institutions and Government Relief Expenditure

基于2007-2018年中国省际面板数据,运用动态系统广义矩模型(GMM),考量制度、政府救灾支出在调节自然灾害对经济增长影响方面的作用。结果表明:从全样本来看,政府救灾支出有利于增强自然灾害对经济增长的促进作用,自然灾害对经济增长的影响受制度的影响较小。分经济区域来看,政府救灾支出有利于增强自然灾害对东部和西部经济增长的促进作用,但对东北地区产生抑制作用;制度可以缓解东部自然灾害对经济增长的抑制作用,但阻碍西部自然灾害对经济增长的促进作用。进一步分析发现,救灾支出、制度在调节自然灾害对经济增长的影响时,都存在倒U型非线性关系。

Based on China's inter-provincial panel data from 2007 to 2018,the dynamic systematic generalized moment model(GMM)is used to study the role of the institutions and government disaster relief expenditure in adjusting the impact of natural disasters on economic growth.The results show that:from the whole sample,the government's disaster relief expenditure is conducive to enhancing the role of natural disasters in promoting economic growth,and the impact of natural disasters on economic growth is less affected by the institutions.In terms of economic regions,government relief expenditure is conducive to enhancing the promotion of natural disasters on the economic growth of the eastern and western regions,but have a restraining effect on the northeast region;the institutions can alleviate the restraining effects of natural disasters on the economic growth in the east,but hinder promoting natural disasters on the west economic growth.Further analysis shows that there is an inverted"U"nonlinear relationship between disaster relief expenditure and institutions in adjusting the impact of natural disasters on economic growth.